FACTS

• Electricity and transport will increase their share of global energy from a current 54% to over 60% in 2030. (IEA: World Energy Outlook, 2004)
• 1.6 billion people still do not have access to electricity and rely on traditional energy sources, which cause several health risks.
• In 2002, power and heat generation contributed around 40% of global CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, with coal-fired power generation responsible for about 70% of this.

TRENDS

• While the use of the traditional sources has been significantly reduced over the last 150 years, this reduction has stalled in the past 25 years. If this continues 1.4 billion people still will not have access by 2030.
• The IEA (World Energy Investment Outlook, 2003) estimates that developing countries require investments of about $7.9 trillion until 2030 in their energy infrastructure, to expand and renew it. In developed countries, the main challenge lies in the gradual renewal of existing energy infrastructure.
• During 2005, China built one large conventional coal-fired power plant almost every two weeks. Expected future capacity additions for China are enormous;
• Energy derived from biomass and waste represents a small but growing segment of the renewable fuels option. CO2 emissions from biomass-derived fuel combustion are classified as greenhouse gas neutral;

Climate Change “Megatrends”

The world’s energy system is complex and faces many challenges.  Five megatrends that will shape energy and energy policy in the coming years, as described by the WBCSD report “Pathways to Energy & Climate Change 2050” are:

1. Power generation – Emissions management moves upstream as electricity is increasingly the final energy carrier, displacing direct burning of fossil fuels in end use.

2. Industry and manufacturing – Industry, together with power generation, has been the first major sector to respond to the challenges posed by climate change and to be impacted by climate change legislation. Further challenges will arise in developing countries with increasing energy demands.

3. Mobility – As the desire for transport and travel increases, especially in developing countries, new technologies and behavioral changes are needed to achieve significant emissions reductions.

4. Buildings - Buildings give rise, directly and indirectly, to as much as 40% of CO2 emissions. New energy-efficient building designs and materials, coupled with renewable heating and electricity, are increasingly attractive, while appliances have to meet ever more stringent efficiency standards.

5. Consumer choices – Society tends to think little of the CO2 implications of simple everyday choices. Yet such choices are a key element in moving to a sustainable energy future.

(PDF Link) to “Pathways to Energy & Climate Change 2050” for more information on the “Megatrends”