results are only slightly below the long-term average of 96.7 (1996-2011) for
the World Economic Survey, conducted by the Munich-based Ifo Institute for
Economic Research and the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC).
experts had an especially positive outlook for the next six months, as
indicated in the report by a rise to 101.8 from 80.7. This was complemented by
a somewhat warmer appraisal of the current situation, increasing to 87.9, from
84.1 in the first quarter of 2012.
policy has partly been driving a positive outlook for the next six months,”
said ICC Secretary General Jean-Guy Carrier. “In many countries, such as China
and Brazil, there has been monetary easing in the form of interest rate cuts.
In the Eurozone, some progress has also been made, including the establishment
of a new permanent financial umbrella European Stability Mechanism (ESM)
starting in July this year.”
Europe recovery, outlook for North America continues to improve
weak second half in 2011, Western Europe is now entering a recovery phase,
climbing back from a steep fall at the end of 2011 (105.2 to 81.4) marking
consecutive increases to reach 99.3.
North America also rose significantly for a second straight quarter to 95.4,
after a similar drop at the end of 2011, from 81.2 to 69.5.
regions enjoyed a significant upward revision of the economic outlook for the
next six months, even if views on the current economic situation showed only a
the economic experts surveyed in Western Europe and North America expect an
increase on economic performance over 2012 of 0.4% and 2.4%, respectively.
upswing after four successive decreases
economic climate indicator in Asia also started to rise, reaching 90.4, up from
74.6, after continuously falling over the previous four quarters.
nearly all regions, appraisals in Asia of both the present economic situation
and, to a greater extent, economic expectations were also upgraded
countries like China have seen a loss of cost competitiveness following 10%
unit labor cost inflation between the end of 2009 and the end of last year,”
said Gernot Nerb, Ifo Director of Business Surveys. “A calmer development of unit labor costs,
however, can be expected in the near future. This, together with a more
accommodative monetary policy, which was made possible because inflation slowed
down, has improved the outlook in Asia.”
in Asia predict 4.0% growth.
estimates nudge up
estimates for the second quarter of 2012 increased only slightly, from 3.5% to
3.6%. Experts also expect on average a slight increase in long-term interest
rates over the next six months.
In terms of
currencies, the report indicates that the euro is slightly overvalued and the
yen is even more overvalued. The dollar exchange rate is also expected to rise
on a worldwide average over the next six months.
ICC/Ifo survey polled 1,101 economic experts from business and academic
institutions in 121 countries to assess current and expected economic
developments. Their answers were analyzed to reach quarterly figures
representative of the current global economic climate, situation and
International Chamber of Commerce
The International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) is
the world business organization, a representative body that speaks with
authority on behalf of enterprises from all sectors in every part of the world.
network of national committees keeps the ICC International Secretariat in Paris
informed about national and regional business priorities. More than 2,000
experts drawn from ICC’s member companies feed their knowledge and experience
into crafting the ICC stance on specific business issues.
Nations, the World Trade Organization, the G20 and many other intergovernmental
bodies, both international and regional, are kept in touch with the views of
international business through ICC.