|
World
economic climate brightens
 |
| They are looking
forward to the recovery |
Paris,
27 August 2003
- A world survey of business sentiment today showed rising expectations
for the global economy although assessments of the current situation remain
weak.
The quarterly economic
climate indicator of the International Chamber of Commerce and the Munich-based
Ifo economic research institute rose to 91.3 points from 83.2 in April.
The
increase was entirely due to higher expectations for the next six months,
which climbed from 98.2 points to 114.0. The more than 1,100 experts from
91 counties kept their assessments of the current economic situation unchanged
at a weak 67.6.
Thus,
the upward trend in the economic climate index already apparent at the
end of April became more pronounced in July. However, Ifo analysts said
it is still too early to draw conclusions about the strength and the length
of recovery.
Experience
shows that three
consecutive positive survey results are required, both
for the current economic situation and for expectations over the next
six months.
Dr. Gernot Nerb, Ifo's
Director of Business Surveys, said: "The world economy is now at
a cross-roads. Clearly, chances for a solid economic upturn are improving."
A regional breakdown
showed the economic climate improving most strongly in North America and
Asia, where it reached long-term average levels, but lagging below average
in Europe.
Respondents to the
survey include corporate economists from multinational companies, academic
economists and chamber of commerce executives.
Other highlights:
- On a world-wide
scale, consumer price inflation in 2003 is now expected to b e 2.8%,
significantly lower than the two surveys in the first half of the year
(each 3.2%).
- There are growing
expectations of a further decline in short-term interest rates, while
long-term rates are expected to remain stable over the next six months.
- The euro is considered
overvalued.
- The US dollar exchange
rate is expected to strengthen over the next six months.
For further information contact Lionel Walsh, ICC Senior Communications
Advisor, tel: Paris +33 1 49 53 28 23; email: Click here to send a mail
or Dr Gernot Nerb Ifo Institute: tel +49 89 92 24 12 36 fax +49 89 92
24 14 63; email: Click here to send a mail
World
economic survey archives and factsheet
View
regional graphs
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