Asian business upbeat about
economic prospects
 |
| Arithmetic mean of
assessment of present and expected economic situation. Source: ICC/Ifo World
Economic Survey |
Paris,
30 August 2002 - In contrast with gloomier expectations for economies
in the rest of the world, business experts in Asia remain comparatively upbeat
about the economic situation and future prospects in their region
Participating in a world
business poll by the International Chamber of Commerce and the Ifo research
Institute based in Munich, Germany, the Asian experts found that the economic
climate in the region had improved slightly, with the ICC-Ifo economic climate
indicator for Asia reaching 105.6 compared with 104.6 in May.
A panel of more than 1,000
business executives, economists and analysts from all over the world took part
in the World Economic Survey. Asian assessments of the current situation improved
slightly after sharp gains in the first and second quarters, while the regional
outlook for the next six months remains practically unchanged.
Ifo Director of Business
Surveys Dr Gernot Nerb said: "The overall climate indicator for Asia now
surpasses the world average and continues on its upward trend in contrast to
the indicator for North America, and especially western Europe."
Most buoyant of all in Asia
were business experts from Korea, whereas the most optimistic responses three
months ago came from Chinese business. Taiwanese and Malaysian executives also
see more dynamic economic growth ahead.
In India, the current economic
situation has not improved, in the view of experts from that country, but it
is still regarded as almost satisfactory after having been in negative territory.
Dr Nerb commented: "Expectations are that the recovery - in capital expenditure
as well as private consumption - will continue for some months to come."
The experts judged that
economic recovery in Singapore and the Philippines had slowed in recent months,
although expectations for the next six months remain clearly positive.
Japan continues to lag behind
the general upward trend in Asia, with its current economic situation rated
well below satisfactory. Indonesia and Hong Kong show considerable weakness
in their current economic performance and the outlook for the next six months
remains uncertain, according to the Asian members of the ICC-ifo panel.
The Asia business experts
found that their region continues to show by far the highest degree of price
stability. Dr Nerb said: "The data we got from Asia this time suggest that
inflation close to zero may lead in some countries of the region, notably Japan
and Hong Kong, to a contracted deflationary process. " The expected price
change in Japan is -0.7% and in Hong Kong -0.1.6%.
Dr Nerb added: "A
nalysis
of the returns suggests that China may be in danger of getting into this deflationary
cycle as inflation is now expected to be only 0.5% for 2002, compared with an
expected 1.2%increase in the April survey."
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