Business
nerves holding up well despite uncertain outlook
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| *Arithmetic mean of
assessment present and expected economic situation. Source: ICC/Ifo World
Economic Survey |
Paris, 28
August 2002 - Despite
current economic uncertainties and falling stock markets, corporate assessments
of the world economic climate declined only slightly in the third quarter of
this year, an international survey of business opinion showed.
The survey of more than
1,000 executives, business economists and analysts came after the two previous
quarters had shown sharp rises in the climate indicator issued by the International
Chamber of Commerce and the Munich-based Ifo research institute.
While expectations for the
coming six months weakened, the current economic situation was judged to have
improved slightly compared with survey results in May. Dr. Gernot Nerb, Ifo's
Director of Business Surveys, commented: " Business nerves are holding
up remarkably well, and this has to be a positive sign for the economic outlook."
Dr Nerb added: "That
the decline in the world economic indicator is only moderate signals that a
double-dip in the world economy is not very likely. However it does suggest
that the ongoing economic recovery will have less momentum than previously expected."
Based on returns collected
last month, The ICC-Ifo indicator stood at 101.1 compared with 104.7 in May,
and still remained above the long-term average since 1989. Analysts ascribed
the decline in the overall indicator mainly to less positive data fr
om western
Europe and to a lesser degree in North America.
Other highlights:
· World currencies
continue to move towards greater stability.
· Inflation is expected to slow worldwide in 2002 with consumer price
inflation estimated at 3.3%.
· No sharp weakening of the US dollar is expected.
· Short and long term interest rates are expected to rise less than the
spring survey suggested.
World
economic survey archives and factsheet
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